Formula, in endurance

Run Training Paces from a Race Time (Daniels VDOT)

Daniels' Running Formula maps a recent race time to a VDOT (similar to VO2max) then to a set of training paces. Five zones: Easy, Marathon, Threshold, Interval, Repetition. Each zone is a specific percentage of VDOT and has a different physiological target. Misclassifying pace is the most common training error: easy too fast erodes recovery, threshold too slow misses the lactate-clearance adaptation.

5 variables. Published May 14, 2026. By AI Fit Hub.

Education, not medical advice. The result comes only from the published formula and your inputs. How we check our formulas.

Formula

VDOT = derived_from(race_time, race_distance)   [Daniels' table]
   Race-time inputs: 5K, 10K, half-marathon, marathon all map to same VDOT

Training paces as % of VDOT-equivalent velocity:
   Easy:       65-78% VDOT — base aerobic
   Marathon:   79-83% VDOT — marathon race pace
   Threshold:  86-92% VDOT — lactate clearance, 20-60 min sustainable
   Interval:   95-100% VDOT — VO2max work, 3-5 min repeats
   Repetition: 105-110% VDOT — neuromuscular, 200-600m repeats, full recovery

Variables

VDOT

Daniels' VDOT score

Population-relative fitness score equivalent to VO2max for racing context. Derived from a recent race time using Daniels' tables (or the Riegel-based reverse-fit). Range: ~30 (slow recreational) to 85+ (elite). A 20:00 5K → VDOT 49.

easy_pace

Easy pace

Aerobic base pace. Should feel conversational. If you can't speak in full sentences, it's not easy — slow down. Builds mitochondrial density + capillarization.

threshold_pace

Threshold pace

Just-sustainable pace for ~1 hour all-out. Trains lactate clearance. Classic workouts: 4×6 min tempo, 2×20 min tempo, 6×1 km cruise intervals. Heart rate sits ~85-90% max.

interval_pace

Interval pace

VO2max-targeting pace. Sustained 3-5 min before lactate accumulates beyond clearable. Workouts: 5×3 min, 6×4 min, 4×5 min — with equal-length jog recoveries.

repetition_pace

Repetition pace

Faster than interval pace, shorter durations (90-180 s). Trains running economy, not aerobic capacity. Full recovery between reps (1:2 or 1:3 work:rest ratio).

Step by step

1

Get a recent race result (≤8 weeks old). 5K, 10K, half-marathon, or marathon. Use Riegel's formula to project from a different distance if needed.

Recent 10K time: 42:30 → VDOT 47 (from Daniels' table).
2

Look up training paces in Daniels' VDOT table for your VDOT row.

VDOT 47 row (per km): Easy 5:11-5:34, Marathon 4:57, Threshold 4:42, Interval 4:18, Repetition 4:02.
3

Assign workouts to zones. Most volume is at Easy pace. Quality work is Threshold + Interval, with Repetition sprinkled in.

Weekly plan: 4 easy runs at Easy pace, 1 threshold session (4×6 min at Threshold), 1 interval session (5×4 min at Interval), 1 long run.
4

Recheck VDOT every 4-6 weeks. Race or time trial confirms current fitness. When VDOT rises, paces drop accordingly.

After 6 weeks of consistent training, race a 10K. 41:45 → VDOT 48 → paces tighten by ~3-5 sec/km across all zones.
5

Watch heart-rate ranges as a sanity check. Threshold should land 85-90% max HR; Interval 92-95%; Repetition 88-92% (lower than Interval because reps are short).

Threshold pace 4:42/km hitting 92% max HR consistently means current threshold is faster than your race-derived VDOT — re-test.

Worked example

Recreational runner with a 42:30 10K wants weekly training paces

Recent 10K time

42:30

VDOT (Daniels' table lookup)

From Daniels' VDOT 47 row (per km): Easy pace: 5:11-5:34 Marathon pace: 4:57 Threshold pace: 4:42 Interval pace: 4:18 Repetition pace: 4:02

Weekly mix: 70-80% volume at Easy pace (slow!). 15-20% at Threshold or Interval (quality work). 5% at Repetition (sharpening). Half-marathon prediction from VDOT 47: ~1:35:00 (Riegel cross-check). Marathon prediction: ~3:18:00 with marathon-specific training.

Common variations

Hadd / MAF (Maffetone): all aerobic work at 180 − age heart rate. More heart-rate-anchored than Daniels' pace-anchored approach. Less precise but more forgiving for self-coaching.

Norwegian / Marius Bakken: extreme high-volume + double threshold sessions per week. Specialized for elite endurance athletes; not transferable to recreational training without injury risk.

Polarized training (Seiler 2013): 80% easy / 20% hard (Threshold + Interval), almost nothing in the 'tempo' middle. Empirically superior to threshold-heavy traditional models for elite endurance.

Power-based running (Stryd): replaces pace with running power (W/kg). More terrain- and grade-aware than pace. Same Daniels-style zones, but expressed in power not pace.

Run the numbers next

Cardio Running Pace Calculator
Calculate pace per km and mile and project race finish times from one run.
Cardio Race Time Predictor
Race Time predictor: predict finish times across 5K, 10K, half marathon, and marathon from any known race result using Riegel's formula.
Cardio VO2 Max Estimator
Estimate aerobic capacity with the Cooper 12-minute run or Rockport 1-mile walk field tests.

Questions people ask next

What is VDOT in Daniels' Running Formula?

VDOT is Daniels' population-relative fitness score, equivalent to VO2max for a racing context. You derive it from a recent race time (5K, 10K, half, or marathon all map to the same VDOT) using Daniels' tables, then read your training paces off that VDOT row. It ranges from about 30 for slow recreational runners to 85+ for elites.

What are the five Daniels training pace zones?

Easy (65-78% VDOT, aerobic base), Marathon (79-83% VDOT), Threshold (86-92% VDOT, lactate clearance, 20-60 min sustainable), Interval (95-100% VDOT, VO2max work in 3-5 min repeats), and Repetition (105-110% VDOT, neuromuscular work in 200-600m repeats with full recovery). Each zone targets a different physiological adaptation.

How do I get my training paces from a recent race time?

Use a race result no older than ~8 weeks, look up the matching VDOT in Daniels' table, then read the pace row. For example, a 42:30 10K gives VDOT 47, which yields (per km) Easy 5:11-5:34, Marathon 4:57, Threshold 4:42, Interval 4:18, and Repetition 4:02.

How often should I recheck my VDOT and paces?

Re-test every 4-6 weeks with a race or time trial. When your VDOT rises, all your paces drop accordingly. In the worked example, six weeks of training cut a 42:30 10K to 41:45, moving VDOT from 47 to 48 and tightening paces by about 3-5 sec/km across all zones.

Why is most of my mileage supposed to be easy?

Easy pace (65-78% VDOT) should feel conversational and builds your aerobic base through mitochondrial density and capillarization. The weekly mix puts 70-80% of volume at Easy pace, 15-20% at Threshold or Interval quality work, and about 5% at Repetition for sharpening. Polarized training (Seiler) similarly runs ~80% easy and 20% hard.

Sources

Daniels (2014). Daniels' Running Formula (3rd ed.). , Human Kinetics — canonical VDOT methodology + tables
Seiler (2010). What is best practice for training intensity and duration distribution in endurance athletes? , International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance — polarized training framework
Stöggl & Sperlich (2014). Polarized training has greater impact on key endurance variables than threshold, high intensity, or high volume training. , Frontiers in Physiology — polarized vs threshold training
Joyner & Coyle (2008). Endurance exercise performance: the physiology of champions. , Journal of Physiology — physiological model underlying VDOT