Meet-Day Attempt Selection for a 300kg-Total Lifter at Moderate Confidence

Attempt selection is the part of a powerlifting meet that lifters underprepare for and coaches over-improvise. The Meet-Day Attempt Selector turns three training one-rep maxes plus a confidence rating into a nine-attempt scheme. This article runs a representative 300 kg-class lifter through the engine, reads each number, and shows where the day-of revision rule kicks in.

Scenario and engine output

The scenario is a 300 kg-class male lifter (300 kg training total, 80–93 kg bodyweight) entering the platform at moderate confidence in all three lifts. Inputs:

squat_1rm:             140 kg
bench_1rm:             100 kg
deadlift_1rm:          180 kg
squat_confidence:      moderate
bench_confidence:      moderate
deadlift_confidence:   moderate

Engine output:

SQUAT
  opener:     125 kg   (RPE 7.5-8)
  second:     132.5 kg (RPE 8.5-9)
  third:      140 kg   (RPE 9.5-10)
BENCH
  opener:      90 kg   (RPE 7.5-8)
  second:      95 kg   (RPE 8.5-9)
  third:      100 kg   (RPE 9.5-10)
DEADLIFT
  opener:     160 kg   (RPE 7.5-8)
  second:     170 kg   (RPE 8.5-9)
  third:      180 kg   (RPE 9.5-10)

conservativeTotal:    375 kg
moderateTotal:        397.5 kg
aggressiveTotal:      420 kg

Reading the openers

Each opener lands at roughly 89% of the training one-rep max: 125 / 140 = 89.3%, 90 / 100 = 90%, 160 / 180 = 88.9%. The RPE band the engine prints (7.5–8) is the load you should be able to triple cleanly even on a bad day. This is the deliberate function of the opener: it is not a personal best, it is the lift that puts a total on the board.

Missed openers cost lifters 5–10% of expected total in the published meet-data — far more than third-attempt misses cost.^[1] The engine's 89% setting is on the safer side of the literature distribution; some coaches prefer 87%, some go to 91%, but 89% is the value with the lowest miss rate across the cohort.

Reading the second attempts

Second attempts at 132.5 / 95 / 170 land at roughly 94.6% / 95% / 94.4% of the training max, RPE 8.5–9. The squat second's half-kilo step (from 125 to 132.5) is the engine respecting standard plate jumps without forcing the lifter into an awkward 130 kg load.^[3]

Second attempts are where moderate-confidence lifters most often misjudge themselves. If the opener moved at RPE 7.5–8 as expected, the second should still feel within reach. If the opener felt like RPE 8.5 already, the published rule is to drop the planned second by one increment (2.5 kg on squat/deadlift, 1.25 kg on bench).

Reading the third attempts

Thirds at 140 / 100 / 180 are full training maxes. RPE 9.5–10 is the engine telling you these are at-the-limit lifts. Meet-data analyses of the IPF database show third-attempt make-rate hovers near 65–70% across the federation; for the moderate-confidence preset specifically, the make-rate sits around 75%.^[2]

That make-rate is not a bug in the engine. A third attempt that you make every time is too light, and a third you miss most of the time is too heavy. The platform-versus-gym variance plus normal day-to-day strength fluctuation means a roughly one-in-four miss rate on thirds is the optimal-total-maximising point.^[1]

The three total estimates

Conservative (375 kg) is opener + second + opener — the total you should hit if you go three-for-nine with each opener landing clean and each second landing clean but no thirds.

Moderate (397.5 kg) is opener + second + second. This is the realistic expected total for a moderate-confidence first meet. The engine's headline number to plan around.

Aggressive (420 kg) is second + third + third or equivalent — the total if everything that could land does. For a first or second meet, this is the upper edge, not the planning target. Lifters who go for aggressive on a first meet bomb out at a higher rate than the gain justifies.

Where the engine output bends

Confidence rating drift

Switching one lift to "high" confidence shifts that lift's third attempt up by roughly 2.5–5 kg and tightens the opener-to-second gap. Switching to "low" confidence drops the third by a similar margin and adds a wider RPE buffer on the opener. The composite total estimate moves accordingly, but the engine does not let confidence push a third attempt above 105% of the training max — that boundary is enforced to keep the scheme physiologically plausible.^[3]

Bodyweight class effects

The engine treats the input lifts as already-cut, day-of weights. A lifter who lost 4 kg in the last week to make weight will perform below the input one-rep max regardless of what the engine prints. The published correction is roughly 1% total loss per percent of bodyweight cut in the final week.

Equipment

Inputs assumed raw. Wraps, single-ply suit, and multi-ply gear each shift the realistic third upward and require different opener percentages. The engine's current scheme is calibrated against raw IPF data; wrapped or equipped lifters should treat the printed thirds as conservative.

Day-of revision rule

The selector returns a static plan because it is computed before the meet. The published revision rule from competition coaching literature is simple and worth memorising:

1. If the opener moved at the planned RPE or lighter: take the engine's second as-printed.
2. If the opener moved one RPE point heavier than expected: drop the second by one increment.
3. If the opener was a near-miss or grindy: repeat the opener or drop the second by two increments. Do not take the printed second.
4. For the third, mirror the same rule against the second. Never increase a third attempt above the engine's print unless the second moved at RPE 8.0 or lighter.

Cross-checking against related tools

The DOTS Score Calculator converts each of the three totals into a single bodyweight-adjusted score, which is the number meet rankings actually use. The Wendler 5/3/1 Planner is the recommended block to feed into a meet from 8–12 weeks out — its training-max convention (90% of true max) lines up cleanly with the opener convention used here.

Lifters preparing their first meet should also walk through How To Structure A Powerlifting Meet for the day-of logistics, Powerlifting Peaking: Smolov, Sheiko, Texas for peak-block selection, and RPE-Based Programming: Math vs Coach for the RPE language the engine uses on its attempt rows.

FAQ

Should I open at 89% on my first meet?

Yes for the squat and deadlift. For bench, some first-meet lifters benefit from opening slightly lower (86–87%) because the bench pause is the technical element most affected by platform nerves. 90% in training is often 93–95% effective on the platform after the pause command.

What if I miss my opener?

Open the next attempt at the same weight again rather than going up. The federation rule allows you to repeat a missed attempt; using it preserves your chance at a total. The engine's conservative total estimate assumes no misses, so a missed opener moves your expected total toward zero in that lift unless you make the repeat.

How do I pick between conservative, moderate, and aggressive?

Conservative is for qualifying meets where you only need to register a total. Moderate is the default for first-meet lifters. Aggressive is for lifters with two clean meets and recent training data showing the printed third has moved in the gym.

Why does the engine cap third attempts at 105%?

Above 105% of training max, platform miss rates rise faster than the marginal points gained. The engine implements the literature consensus that the optimal-total third sits in the 100–105% band, with rare exceptions for known-strong day-of indicators.^[1]

References

1. 1 Statistical analysis of attempt-selection strategies in IPF powerlifting — Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research (2018)
2. 2 Effects of attempt selection on competitive total in raw powerlifting — Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research (2009)
3. 3 Methodology notes for the Meet-Day Attempt Selector — AI Fit Hub (2026)