Meet-Day Attempt Selection for a 300kg-Total Lifter at Moderate Confidence

Attempt selection is the part of a powerlifting meet that lifters underprepare for and coaches over-improvise. The Meet-Day Attempt Selector turns three training one-rep maxes plus a confidence rating into a nine-attempt scheme. This article runs a representative 300 kg-class lifter through the engine, reads each number, and shows where the day-of revision rule kicks in.

Scenario and engine output

The scenario is a 300 kg-class male lifter (300 kg training total, 80–93 kg bodyweight) entering the platform at moderate confidence in all three lifts. Running it through the Meet-Day Attempt Selector:

# meet-day-attempt-selector (computed live from /engines/meet-day-attempt-selector.js)
Engine input
  squat_1rm             = 140
  bench_1rm             = 100
  deadlift_1rm          = 180
  squat_confidence      = moderate
  bench_confidence      = moderate
  deadlift_confidence   = moderate

Engine output
  squat.opener          = 125
  squat.second          = 132.5
  squat.third           = 140
  squat.openerRpe       = RPE 7.5-8
  squat.secondRpe       = RPE 8.5-9
  squat.thirdRpe        = RPE 9.5-10
  bench.opener          = 90
  bench.second          = 95
  bench.third           = 100
  bench.openerRpe       = RPE 7.5-8
  bench.secondRpe       = RPE 8.5-9
  bench.thirdRpe        = RPE 9.5-10
  deadlift.opener       = 160
  deadlift.second       = 170
  deadlift.third        = 180
  deadlift.openerRpe    = RPE 7.5-8
  deadlift.secondRpe    = RPE 8.5-9
  deadlift.thirdRpe     = RPE 9.5-10
  conservativeTotal     = 375
  moderateTotal         = 397.5
  aggressiveTotal       = 420

Reading the openers

Each opener lands at roughly 89% of the training one-rep max: 125 / 140 = 89.3%, 90 / 100 = 90%, 160 / 180 = 88.9%. The RPE band the engine prints (7.5–8) is the load you should be able to triple cleanly even on a bad day. This is the deliberate function of the opener: it is not a personal best, it is the lift that puts a total on the board.

The opening lift is the attempt that most separates winners from non-winners in competition data. Across 10,672 raw competition entries, winners opened the squat on average 7 kg heavier than non-winners and were more likely to make it, and the whole sample opened at about 92% of the weight they went on to hit that day.^[2] At the elite end, IPF Classic World Championship lifters open at roughly 91% of their eventual third attempt, then add about 5% to the second and about 3% to the third.^[1] The engine's 89% setting sits deliberately on the safer side of both distributions.

Reading the second attempts

Second attempts at 132.5 / 95 / 170 land at roughly 94.6% / 95% / 94.4% of the training max, RPE 8.5–9. The squat second's half-kilo step (from 125 to 132.5) is the engine respecting standard plate jumps without forcing the lifter into an awkward 130 kg load.^[3]

Second attempts are where moderate-confidence lifters most often misjudge themselves. If the opener moved at RPE 7.5–8 as expected, the second should still feel within reach. If the opener felt like RPE 8.5 already, the published rule is to drop the planned second by one increment (2.5 kg on squat/deadlift, 1.25 kg on bench).

Reading the third attempts

Thirds at 140 / 100 / 180 are full training maxes. RPE 9.5–10 is the engine telling you these are at-the-limit lifts. Competition-data analysis puts squat third-attempt success at roughly 64–68%, with winners only a few points above non-winners.^[2] A moderate-confidence scheme that prints thirds at the training max should expect to land in that band, not above it.

That make-rate is not a bug in the engine. A third attempt that you make every time is too light, and a third you miss most of the time is too heavy. Even among competition winners about a third of third attempts are missed,^[2] so a miss rate in that region is the normal price of a third worth taking.

The three total estimates

Conservative (375 kg) is opener + second + opener — the total you should hit if you go three-for-nine with each opener landing clean and each second landing clean but no thirds.

Moderate (397.5 kg) is opener + second + second. This is the realistic expected total for a moderate-confidence first meet. The engine's headline number to plan around.

Aggressive (420 kg) is second + third + third or equivalent — the total if everything that could land does. For a first or second meet, this is the upper edge, not the planning target. Lifters who go for aggressive on a first meet bomb out at a higher rate than the gain justifies.

Where the engine output bends

Confidence rating drift

Switching one lift to "high" confidence shifts that lift's third attempt up by roughly 2.5–5 kg and tightens the opener-to-second gap. Switching to "low" confidence drops the third by a similar margin and adds a wider RPE buffer on the opener. The composite total estimate moves accordingly, but the engine does not let confidence push a third attempt above 105% of the training max — that boundary is enforced to keep the scheme physiologically plausible.^[3]

Bodyweight class effects

The engine treats the input lifts as already-cut, day-of weights. A lifter who lost 4 kg in the last week to make weight will perform below the input one-rep max regardless of what the engine prints. The published correction is roughly 1% total loss per percent of bodyweight cut in the final week.

Equipment

Inputs assumed raw. Wraps, single-ply suit, and multi-ply gear each shift the realistic third upward and require different opener percentages. The engine's current scheme is calibrated against raw IPF data; wrapped or equipped lifters should treat the printed thirds as conservative.

Day-of revision rule

The selector returns a static plan because it is computed before the meet. The published revision rule from competition coaching literature is simple and worth memorising:

1. If the opener moved at the planned RPE or lighter: take the engine's second as-printed.
2. If the opener moved one RPE point heavier than expected: drop the second by one increment.
3. If the opener was a near-miss or grindy: repeat the opener or drop the second by two increments. Do not take the printed second.
4. For the third, mirror the same rule against the second. Never increase a third attempt above the engine's print unless the second moved at RPE 8.0 or lighter.

Cross-checking against related tools

The DOTS Score Calculator converts each of the three totals into a single bodyweight-adjusted score, which is the number meet rankings actually use. The Wendler 5/3/1 Planner is the recommended block to feed into a meet from 8–12 weeks out — its training-max convention (90% of true max) lines up cleanly with the opener convention used here.

Lifters preparing their first meet should also walk through How To Structure A Powerlifting Meet for the day-of logistics, Powerlifting Peaking: Smolov, Sheiko, Texas for peak-block selection, and RPE-Based Programming: Math vs Coach for the RPE language the engine uses on its attempt rows.

FAQ

Should I open at 89% on my first meet?

Yes for the squat and deadlift. For bench, some first-meet lifters benefit from opening slightly lower (86–87%) because the bench pause is the technical element most affected by platform nerves. 90% in training is often 93–95% effective on the platform after the pause command.

What if I miss my opener?

Open the next attempt at the same weight again rather than going up. The federation rule allows you to repeat a missed attempt; using it preserves your chance at a total. The engine's conservative total estimate assumes no misses, so a missed opener moves your expected total toward zero in that lift unless you make the repeat.

How do I pick between conservative, moderate, and aggressive?

Conservative is for qualifying meets where you only need to register a total. Moderate is the default for first-meet lifters. Aggressive is for lifters with two clean meets and recent training data showing the printed third has moved in the gym.

Why does the engine cap third attempts at 105%?

Above 105% of training max the attempt stops resembling anything the lifter has done in the gym. Elite competition data has openers at about 91% of the eventual third attempt and only a ~3% step from second to third,^[1] so a third far beyond the training max sits outside the progression that actually works on the platform.